Tyler O’Neill is the Newest Orioles’ Outfielder – How He Helps Baltimore Compete in 2025

Big News from Birdland

The Baltimore Orioles have made waves this offseason by signing outfielder Tyler O’Neill to a 3-year, $49.5 million deal. This is the largest deal by far since general manager Mike Elias took over in 2018. Shockingly, this is also the first multi-year contract Elias has completed.

Tyler O’Neill is a right-handed outfielder known for his huge, powerful swing. He led the Red Sox in home runs last year with 31, in just 113 games. Nicknamed “Popeye” due to his muscular arms and intense focus on weight training, his physicality and power make him a formidable presence in the lineup.

O’Neill’s baseball journey began in Canada, where he grew up before being drafted by the Seattle Mariners in 2013. After a trade to the St. Louis Cardinals, he made his MLB debut in 2018. His early years saw limited playing time, but in 2021, he broke out in spectacular fashion. That year, he smashed 34 home runs, posted a .286 batting average, and delivered a stellar .912 OPS (for reference, .750 is considered average for MLB hitters). His performance earned him an 8th-place finish in NL MVP voting, placing him among names like Freddie Freeman and Austin Riley. O’Neill also captured back-to-back Gold Gloves in left field in 2020 and 2021, solidifying his reputation as a well-rounded player.

However, health concerns have clouded O’Neill’s career since his monster 2021 season. Over the past three years, he has averaged just 93 games per season due to various injuries. After another injury-marred campaign in 2023, the Cardinals traded him to the Boston Red Sox, where he played under a one-year arbitration deal. Despite these challenges, O’Neill was a bright spot in an up and coming Red Sox team where he led them in HRs with 31 - O’Neill made history as the first player ever to homer in five consecutive Opening Day games, surpassing legendary names like Gary Carter and Yogi Berra.

Now, with his free-agent payday secured, O’Neill is ready to make an impact in Baltimore. His unique blend of power, experience, and attitude could be the spark the Orioles need to take the next step in their quest for championship

Tyler O’Neill’s Resume - Why the Orioles Signed Him

1. Lefty Killer

2. Power

3. Attitude

The biggest reason why the Orioles signed him is his ability to destroy left-handed pitching. He slashed .313/.429/.750 vs. LHP with an outrageous 1.179 OPS, nearly Aaron Judge numbers. 

O’Neill can mash the ball about as hard as anyone in the majors. He ranks in the top 10% for Barrel%, Hard Hit Rate, and Bat Speed, according to Baseball Savant. 

He brings a little bit of a different attitude from more relaxed guys like Adley Rutschman, Gunnar Henderson, and Colton Cowser. He will bring a  swagger to the clubhouse, look at the way he disrespects and mean-mugs this ball as he launches it over the Green Monster.

The Concerns with Tyler O’Neill

O’Neill is a free swinger in the truest sense of the word. He has a lot of swing and miss in his game, but that’s almost always the case when a player has his kind of power. His 34.1% whiff rate and 33.6% strikeout rate are both in the bottom 5% in MLB. 

But, this kind of player meshes well with the Orioles organizational hitting philosophy. They often target big power, high walk guys and help them manage their swing decisions to cut strikeouts without sapping power. Guys like Ryan O’Hearn and prospects Jud Fabian and recent first rounder Vance Honeycutt have all improved their pitch selection thanks to the O’s coaching staff. 

The Orioles may have gone with a short term deal because they expect Honeycutt or another prospect to take over down the road. O’Neill was a gold glove winner in the past, his Outs Above Average (OAA) was -4 last year compared to 2021 when it was +4. His speed has also declined from 29.5 ft/sec in his first 5 seasons to 27.5 last year, mainly due to injuries, some part of that is due to playing in Fenway Park’s bizarre dimensions. 

Availability will ultimately determine how big a success this deal is. A healthy O’Neill will produce enough big hits to be a middle of the order bat, even with the strikeout concerns. But a part time player who can’t contribute on defense is not normally the kind of player Brandon Hyde likes.

What This Means for the Orioles Outfield

Birdland is asking what this means for the rest of the roster next year. 

Birdland knows that Orioles manager Brandon Hyde loves to mix and match based on pitching matchups, so expect O’Neill to start when there is a left handed pitcher, and platoon with the other outfielders vs righties depending on scenarios. 

The Orioles will have 3 left handers in the outfield, Cowser, Mullins, and Kjerstad. O’Neill will be the only righty, and the outfield will be supplemented by 1B/OF/DH Ryan O’Hearn and rarely SS/2B/CF Jorge Mateo. Hyde and Elias are licking their chops thinking about O’Neill coming in off the bench in a big spot. Outfielders Colton Cowser (.662 OPS vs LHP, .806 vs RHP) and Cedric Mullins (.506 vs LHP, .766 vs RHP) both struggled against lefties in big spots, and Heston Kjerstad only has 16 at bats against lefties in his pro career. O’Neill’s power to left field will bring a different profile of hitter to Camden Yards.

Take a look at O’Neill’s spray chart, this guy is going to hit nukes towards the Hilton Hotel beyond center field. Remember that the Orioles are moving the left field wall in towards the plate, probably to attract pull-side mashers just like Popeye. Cionel Perez better put extra padding in his hat if he wants to catch these dingers.

Comparing O’Neill and Santander

Unfortunately this takes the Orioles out of the running for longtime OF Anthony Santander. There simply isn’t room on the roster, and money still has to be spent on pitching. Tony Taters is beloved as much as anyone, but there are a few reasons why O’Neill is a good replacement. The team doesn’t need a switch hitter like Santander in that position, with 4 other lefties already, they need a more balanced lineup. 

This was especially apparent in the playoffs against the Rangers last year. Texas manager Bruce Bochy consistently matched up the O’s against lefty pitchers to great effect. Let’s use Baseball Savant to take a look at O’Neill vs. Santander last year, just against lefties. O”Neill murdered lefties, slashing .313/.429/.750(!), while Santander (.225/.306/.488) posted lower slash lines in more at bats. 

Projecting for next season, O’Neill will produce roughly the same power numbers as Santander would have in 2025. Tyler produced 131 WRC+ compared to Santander’s 129. They have the exact same career batting average (.246) and slugging % (.469). 

Santander’s traditional counting stats are higher due to his durability, having at least 150 games in the past 3 seasons. 44 home runs is great, but MLB front offices aren’t as focused on traditional stats, getting on base AND hitting for power is more valuable. Santander’s 8.2% walk rate last season was the highest of his career, still 3% lower than O’Neill’s.

Historically, O’Neill has been a much better defender than Tony. In past seasons, O’Neill was one of the best athletes in the league with the ability to play all 3 positions. As injuries and time have caught up, the two are much closer than in the past. Playing left field in Fenway park can often skew defensive stats. 

According to Statcast’s fielding run value, a metric for capturing a player’s measurable defensive performance by converting all of Statcast’s individual defensive metrics, both players ended up with a below average FRV of -3 (average is 0). Don’t forget that the Orioles already have 2 elite defensive outfielders in Cowser (+10 FRV) and Mullins (+3), so league average defense in 1 spot is an ok trade off for a big bat. 

O’Neill’s range is better thanks to his speed, which is still league average instead of in the top 1% early in his career. Last season he ran 27.5 ft/sec (38th by position, top 45% overall) compared to Santander’s dismal 26 ft/sec (72nd by position, bottom 18% overall). Finally, O’Neill has a cannon of an arm, averaging 89.4 mph on his throws compared to Santander’s 87.3 MPH. 

Santander is looking for a longer contract projected to be at least 4-5 years and $80-100 million. That is a lot of money to pay for a guy who does not play good defense and will end up as a DH halfway through his new deal. A DH who has a low OBP like Santander will not age well with that deal. 

O’Neill certainly has some similar concerns, but the risk is mitigated with the shorter length and potential opt-out. No disrespect intended towards Tony Taters, he was a great Oriole and should be revered as such. While Anthony Santander’s effort was called out by some fans, this signing gives this young Orioles team exactly what they need in the clubhouse - a leader with fire.  O’Neill is the perfect guy ripping monster weight in the weight room, hustling in the field, and bringing a similar swagger to the team that Santander did.  Tyler’s personality will be a great addition to a team that needs more of that dawg in em. The key difference - O’Neill does all of the little things well - while Santander did most of them.

What’s Next for Birdland?

The contract is team-friendly, with an average annual value of $16.5 million and an opt-out after 1 season. This tells me that the Orioles are finally willing to spend money, but smartly and in the right spots.

Other FA outfielders like Teoscar Hernandez and Santander would cost closer to $80 million over the course of the deal. The Orioles can allocate the difference to pitchers still on the open market.

Top end starters like Corbin Burnes and Dylan Cease are available, as well as needle-movers like Sean Manaea and Nick Pivetta. Don’t think of this as the Orioles aren’t willing to spend big, they have a host of home-grown hitters, they just need to allocate their money elsewhere.

This is similar to when the Chicago Cubs got big-time starters John Lester and Jake Arrieta to add to a strong young core of bats. Clearly Baltimore is finally willing to spend money, now it’s all about resource allocation. The Orioles have struggled against top lefties in the playoffs over the past 2 seasons, O’Neill will be a difference maker that can help Birdland get back to the playoffs and do damage in big moments.

Ultimately, O’Neill will give about 80% of Tony’s production (less at-bats due to platooning) for about 60% of the price, and on a team-friendly timeline. Plus, this gives former 2nd overall pick Heston Kjerstad a chance to get consistent MLB at-bats. O’Neill balances the O’s lineup from the right side. 

Final Thoughts

It’s never fun to lose a fan favorite like Taters, especially a home run hitter, but Birdland will be happy with this deal. However, this team still needs more help to become great. The next step is to get a top pitcher or two who can help turn that playoff appearance into a championship. Otherwise, it looks a bit like the Orioles weren’t willing to pay a homegrown star, even if the underlying numbers agree with the decision.

Potential Opening Day Lineup

1. SS Gunnar Henderson

2. C Adley Rutschman

3. RF Tyler O’Neill

4. 1B Ryan Mountcastle

5. DH Heston Kjerstad

6. 3B Jordan Westburg

7. LF Colton Cowser

8. 2B Jackson Holliday

9. CF Cedric Mullins

P Grayson Rodriguez/Zach Eflin/Unnamed FA

Bench: Jorge Mateo, Gary Sanchez, Ryan O’Hearn, Ramon Urias/Coby Mayo