Ravens-Bills Preview: AFC Divisional Playoffs

Finally, the rematch the NFL has been waiting, as the AFC North champion Baltimore Ravens head north to take on the AFC East champion Buffalo Bills. Both teams are spearheaded by MVP-level quarterbacks Lamar Jackson and Josh Allen. While the MVP race has been voted on already, the result of this game will have far greater implications for these QBs. The winner will mostly get a chance to go to Arrowhead and get a legacy-defining chance to crush the Chiefs dream of a threepeat. The losing QB will have to hear all offseason about how they “can’t win the big one” and watch the remainder of the playoffs sulking on the couch. Both these teams believe they can win a Super Bowl with their respective roster, but playoff football is cruel and unusual. The Ravens are currently 1-point favorites, essentially an even game. To get a tough, tough win on the road, here are the keys to the game for the Ravens.

Both Teams Want to Pound the Rock, Who Can Win the Trenches?

When the Ravens played the Bills at home back in week 4, Derrick Henry ran for an 87-yard touchdown on the first play of the game. That play set the tone for a 35-10 rout by Baltimore, and Buffalo could not recover. If the Ravens can continue to run the ball effectively with Jackson and Henry, they are impossible to beat. Baltimore ran the ball 15 consecutive times against the Steelers last weekend, and Pittsburgh probably has the best defensive front of any opponent Baltimore will face in the AFC. Buffalo will have to play better than they did in the regular season to have a chance. Only three teams in the NFL were worse on third down than the Bills, who allowed first downs 43.8% of the time.

Baltimore’s weakness on offense is their interior line, guards Patrick Mekari and Daniel Faalele. Teams like the Eagles and Rams have massive d-lines that can knock the Ravens off balance and get to Derrick Henry before he can build momentum. But that is easier said than done. Henry is having one of the best seasons of his career due in large part to the massive holes created by his offensive line. Lamar Jackson also deserves credit for this stat, since the defense will always keep eyes on him and shift attention away from King Henry.

Ravens’ Rushing Attack: A Two-Headed Monster

The read option play continues to baffle defenses. Middle linebackers are stuck between a rock and a hard place deciding who to cover. On Henry’s 44-yard rushing touchdown, all the linebackers flowed to try and stop Lamar, leaving a huge hole for Henry to scamper through. The Ravens ability to run the football will give them an advantage in time of possession, and creates big chunk plays in the passing game off play action.

Bills’ Ground Game: A Test for Baltimore’s Elite Defense

Bills RB James Cook and Allen are no slouches themselves, Cook ran over the Broncos last week for 120 yards and a touchdown. They tied an NFL record with 32 rushing touchdowns in a season, thanks to a massive offensive line led by left tackle Dion Dawkins. Meanwhile Allen is one of the strongest QBs we have ever seen, often throwing away defenders like he is an uncle playing against kids on Thanksgiving. It will be strength on strength when Buffalo runs the ball, Baltimore’s rush defense was the best in the NFL, allowing just 3.6 yards per carry. The gave up just 29 rush yards to the Steelers last week, and 81 yards to the Bills in the regular season. The run D is led by interior lineman like Nnamdi Madubuike and Travis Jones. Both big men excel at clogging up rushing lanes. The strong defensive front allows stars like Roquan Smith and Kyle Hamilton to rack up tackles in bunches. Run defense is always a team effort, it takes all 11 players every snap, the Ravens have the personnel and the drive to make the Bills miserable on offense.

Consistent pressure

Chuck Smith is a name many Ravens fans might not know, but he is one of the big reasons why the Ravens have been so great on defense last year and the second half of this year. Smith is the outside linebackers coach and pass rushing guru since 2023. In those two years the Ravens have racked up 60 sacks (league leaders and franchise record) and 52 this year (2^nd overall). Odafe Oweh has made huge strides under Smith’s tutelage. Oweh’s knock coming out of college was that he did not make many sacks or plays in the backfield. This year Oweh doubled his previous high with 10 sacks, and added another against Pittsburgh on Saturday night. The flexibility and strength he possesses to get around the tackle is rare, and the Ravens are finally getting results from their 2021 first round pick.

Veteran edge Kyle Van is enjoying a career renaissance in Baltimore since joining partway through last year. KVN has accounted for 9 and 12.5 sacks over the past two seasons, his previous record was 6.5. He gives a ton of credit to coach Smith for helping him learn an arsenal of pass rush moves. Van Noy also credits DC Zach Orr for allowing him to flourish as a pure pass rusher, rather than assigning him off ball responsibilities in coverage.

Baltimore’s defense sacked Russell Wilson 4 times last week, and will hope to continue that this week. Josh Allen is like Ben Roethlisberger in his prime, a huge man who is difficult to bring down, especially when he can get outside the pocket and extend pays. Allen is too good to stop completely, but the defense will need to limit his opportunities by tacking him at the first chance they get. Allen, like Lamar, thrives when the play breaks down. Keeping him in the pocket will be paramount towards stopping the Bills offense.

No Zay, No Problem (So Far)

Ravens WR1 Zay Flowers missed last week with a knee sprain, and his status is unknown for this matchup. Baltimore moved the ball just fine without Zay, 7 different receivers caught a pass. The backups played their role: Tylan Wallace and Nelson Agholor each had big first down catches. Practice Squad WR Anthony Miller was called up as well, making 3 catches. Returner Steven Sims got in the action with a reverse play usually called for Flowers. While Flowers was missed, the Ravens will not need to worry about losing him if they can run the ball for 300 yards every game. Head Coach John Harbaugh said that Flowers could play even if he does not practice this week. If that is the case, expect Zay to be used as more of a decoy on limited snaps. Baltimore has already shown it can win without its top wideout, but getting him back gives the defense another weapon to keep an eye, creating space for the rest of the Ravens star

Most of the discussion in the lead up to this game is centered around the two quarterbacks. They are both faces of the league who are having all-time seasons. But only one can win the MVP, and only one can move on to the next round. They will both make a few plays that will make you say “Wow!” One might even make a crucial mistake that puts his team in jeopardy. But the real key to the game is simple, which defense can stop the opposing offense from running the ball. Whoever stops the run will likely win the time of possession and therefore the game. The Ravens stout run defense and the two headed monster of Henry and Jackson will be too much for Buffalo to handle.

Final Score: RAVENS 27 – Buffalo 17